Monthly Archives: December 2013

Moms, dads and predictive analytics

Demo lessons, demo lessons, demo lessons. That is the rule. Advertising works well, customers call in to set demo lessons for their little and beloved children. This is the typical situation a manager finds herself in a local business that provides the community with English – as a foreign language

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Posted in Management, R-stats
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Decision making under uncertainty: Bayesian inference

Individuals make decisions using biased tools. Citing Kahneman and Tverski we can say that many decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election, [. . . ], the future value of the dollar. These beliefs are usually expressed in statements such as I think

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Posted in Economics, Whitepapers
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Bonus, express and underlie

Recently during a webinar we had to face two very interesting but unrelated topics about finance. The first one was about how to consider certificates as an asset class in a diversified portfolio, whereas the second topic revolved around current stock valuation on international markets and the role of emerging

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Posted in Economics, R-stats
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Are top “growers” top “performers”?

Life is hard when it comes to forecast future returns. How much expected earnings growth accounts for relative performance? Based on data by Factset about Stoxx 600 securities as of November 30, 2013, picking the top 115 12-month performers vs. the index and  comparing them with the top 115 securities in

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Posted in Economics
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Look yourself in the mirror!

To whoever conveyed recently his or her doubts – during a seminar – about how ‘in practice things look differently in comparison with how simple you’ve put them in theory’ expressing hesitation about the conclusions on the dividend yield-price earnings ratio relationship, I’d like to draw his or her attention

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Posted in Economics
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ECB’s Financial Stability Review: last call

The ECB’s recent last call to public finance austerity and reform rigor has been relayed by its last Financial Stability Review update on November 27. Though admittedly austerity has been and still is a short-term recessive drag on the mostly stressed peripheral euro economies, it remains an important factor to be

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Posted in Economics
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