ROC & roll

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Just in case you’ve been wondering where all those 70s’ “obscenities” have ended up, you’d better now check in credit analysis rating systems to understand they haven’t gone far.

ROC & roll

In the figure above a credit risk model, fitted with a logistic function, has been tested on an out-of-sample credit file of 500 firms. With obviously good results indeed (see the ROC curve approaching the top-left corner), except for the fact that the out-of-time component of the test had been completely left out; consequences: sensitivity and specificity plummet the following year, which it happens to be 2012. It’s been a long time since ROC and roll.

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Posted in Economics, Research & Analytics
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